I am far from a stock market expert. Barely a dabbler. I understand how the market works from a intellectual perspective, and have some skin in the game. Despite that, I generally consider it a canonical example of the Greater Fool Theory. I understand that the market—over time—”always goes up” but the last few years have shown that even fundamentally sound companies (like Apple or Amazon) will fall simply because “investors” don’t believe they can sell their shares to someone else at a higher price than they bought them.
The market sometimes moves more for psychological reasons than fundamental ones, and people are operating under fear conditions.
Which brings me to my point:
On January 20, 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed onÂ atÂ 7,949.09.Â
I’m predicting that will be the lowest we’ll see the market the rest of this year.
I have a terrible track record of stock picks, so take my prediction with a bigÂ himalayan pink salt brick. But I believe that the wave of optimism accompanying President Obama into office will buoy the markets, and that his fiscal and economicÂ policies will further shore them up.
Now, I’m not predicting a return to the stratospheric heights of 2007; heck, even a return to 10,000, a number we first topped some ten years ago—and last saw in October 2008—would require a greater than 25% increase over the Inauguration Day close (although at least one person is).
Today we saw a 3.5% increase over yesterday’s close. Tomorrow we’ll probably see a 3.5% drop. But I’m now on the record: we’ve seen the bottom. It’s all upside now.