By: c

Wed, 05 Sep 2007 01:15:22 +0000

Nice theory. Normally works. Here’s why the now is different than the past. Apple Store shipping times are way up on two of Apple’s profitable products (iMac 1-4 days and Powerbooks- 7-10 days on these really profitable models!- normally less than 24 hours and it’s been a while since Apple was that company that always had production supply/demand imbalances). I took a trip to SFO from Denver two weeks ago. I saw iPhones in many hands at DIA and tons of people looking at them in Boulder Apple Store. In SFO there were iPhones everywhere and downtown, the Apple store was a mob scene on a weekday afternoon -people were lined up two deep at the iPhone table- it’s like the multi-touch display has some kind of hypnotic effect on people and they don’t want to let it out of their hands! Apple forecast a quarter lower than last- based on these observations, my conclusion is NO WAY! and they are going to have a monster quarter compared to guidance and the stock is going to Kramer predicted levels- Don’t forget that Leopard is due sometime in October, right around the earnings reporting time in case the results alone are not enough! I had Apple at 17 and sold at 23 using the standard Apple trade scenario discussed- I’ve been buying and selling since. At 143+ I’m thinking the buy and hold people are winning more than me by about 3 times over!. Normally I would have a stop loss in, to lock in the profit, but not this time as I am afraid I won’t get a chance to buy it as low and I’ll miss the Quarter and Leopard timing. If I’m wrong (and I would really kind of like it if I am), I’ll be buying more about a week or two out following the typical price response to an announcement. Think it through and check out what the apple store is telling you!

Comments on: Tracking 2007 Macworld Keynote and Stock prices

By: c