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Tracking 2007 Macworld Keynote and Stock prices

January 10, 2007

Apple, as you no doubt know, held its annual Macworld Expo Keynote today, and if you’re reading this, you already know about the iPhone and AppleTV. You probably also know that, historically, Apple’s stock runs up before the keynote, Steve Jobs comes out and announces a bunch of cool new products, and the stock promptly takes a dive. It’s pretty much a given: everyone buys AAPL until just before Steve walks out on stage, and then they sell.

I decided to track Apple’s stock today throughout Steve’s keynote to see how things went this time around. No need to keep you in suspense: AAPL had a huge day, up $7.10 (8.44%). But that’s not the interesting part.

What’s fascinating is watching the pattern of rises and falls as various announcements and events occur. Here’s how I saw things, with a chart of the day for easy following. AAPL opened at $85.60. This is our baseline. All times below are Pacific Time; pricing and times are approximate, and based on E*Trade’s charts and my notes.

Pre-Keynote: The stock is generally rising. At about 8:42 AM (about 20 minutes before Steve is scheduled to come on stage), AAPL is up to $87.75. This is the high-point prior to Steve’s expected appearance.

9:08: Steve walks onto stage, “We’re gonna make some history together today.” $87.68

9:22: Steve says “This is all we’re gonna talk about the Mac today”. Stock price plummets to $85.52

9:26: New iTunes commercials finish. $85.58

9:28-9:40: Apple TV (nee iTV) introduced, demoed. Price bounces around. High $85.78

9:40: Steve shows Apple.com teaser image, talks about a “revolutionary” new product. $86.03

9:42: “iPod with touch screen; Phone; Internet Communicator”. $86.72

9:48: “Get rid of all these buttons, just make a giant screen”. $88.25

9:50: “iPhone runs OS X”. $87.56

9:52: Steve starts his description of iPhone in general. $88.20

9:56: Start of iPhone “iPod” Demo. $87.96

10:04: Start of iPhone “Phone” Demo. $87.88

10:16: Steve starts his description of iPhone “Internet Communications Device”. $89.62

10:18: Start of iPhone “Internet Communications Device” Demo. $89.67

10:26: Prank-calls Starbucks, orders 4,000 lattes to go. $90.00

10:32: End of demos; Google’s CEO Eric Schmidt makes “applegoo” joke. $90.49

10:48: Pricing and Shipping information. $92.35. Stock price generally drops from here until the end of the keynote.

10:54: Cingular Wireless CEO reads from index cards. $90.99

10:56: Market for mobile phones is “just about a billion”. $90.64.

10:58: Renaming company to Apple Inc, no more “Computer” $90.64.

11:04: Steve ends, no “One more thing…”, introduces the musical guest. $91.40

The stock price then continued to rise for the rest of the day, with a few dips. Know who I feel sorry for? All those other “smartphone” makers, like Research In Motion (Blackberry), Palm and Motorola. Here’s why: a chart showing AAPL, RIMM, MOT and PALM. The Blackberry folks took it especially hard on the chin.